Kennedys Global Forecast 2025: Supply chain delays to continue due to multiple risk factors

As 2024 drew to a close, we surveyed more than 170 of our global partners to find out what topics, issues and risks they saw as having the biggest impact on their market in the year ahead, and what actions corporates and their insurers should take to ensure business resilience in an ever-evolving risk landscape. Responses came from 17 countries across APAC, EMEA, LATAM, the US and the UK.

Marine results  

Looking at the responses received from our global Marine partners, cyber attacks were cited as the most pressing risk. They were highest in size of impact, reflecting increasing threats to marine logistics due to rising reliance on digital systems and port security – all of which impact directly on global supply chains.

When asked about the anticipated peak impact for these risks, our partners were clear that cyber threats are an immediate concern.

Extreme weather events were rated as a long-term, but intensifying risk. They were ranked second for size of impact with time estimates predicting that climate risks will continue to have major consequences in the next 3-5 years (and beyond).

Economic volatility ranked third for level of impact and time of peak impact, evidencing that economic risks are expected to remain significant in the near future for the marine industry.

Geopolitical instability was shown to be an ongoing threat, ranking fourth in time of peak impact. Mindful that the survey took place in November 2024, this is evidence that the uncertainty surrounding global politics, sanctions and the safe passage of goods is anticipated to escalate in the next couple of years.

Global concern for geopolitical risks

When asked to consider which issues were of increasing concern, geopolitical instability scored the highest across all regions for all business lines combined.

With ongoing uncertainty, geopolitical instability is perceived as both an immediate and medium-term challenge likely to have a sustained impact.

Geopolitical instability results in prolonged disruptions in trade and supply chains, and investment environments. While individual governments can seek to regulate in an attempt to minimise the disruption caused by, for example, new technologies, this is much more challenging when looking at the world geopolitical stage.

Impact on supply chains

These results reinforce the fact that supply chain disruption is here to stay.

Due to the increasing interconnectivity of global markets combined with the vast range of potential disruptors, insurers and insureds must continue to factor in all possible risk scenarios in an attempt to avoid rising claims.

With industries favouring a ‘just in time’ model, with goods arriving when needed rather than being kept in (sometimes expensive) storage facilities, this becomes ever more challenging.