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This article contains statements, paraphrases and conclusions from Kennedys An Audience with Anne McElvoy. The panel considered what 2024’s elections, the rise in Generative AI and new political allegiances mean for global business and the wider risk landscape.
We had the privilege of welcoming back award-winning journalist and political commentator Anne McElvoy, to share her perspectives on how significant world events have shaped the geopolitical landscape that business operates in – a discussion that Kennedys follows closely.
A year ago, we were still talking about the COVID-19 pandemic and otherwise, the focus had largely shifted to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. That, of course, presented us with a host of new risks – especially in the context of supply chain issues.
Little did we realise then that the world was going to become even more complex. Significant world events have included the Hamas attack on Israel in October 2023, the G20 summit – the first held in India; COP28 as global temperatures shatter records, India surpassing China as the most populous country and AI taking another leap forward with Chat GPT-4.
Overall, it has been a trying year on the world scene and as we stride into 2024, we see more than 80 countries – over half of the world’s population – vote in elections that could be pivotal for democracy.
With this as a backdrop, it is clear that any business leader today is also required to be a politician. To that end, we started by asking Anne about her perception of what is currently in President Putin’s mind with regard to his power play?
Getting inside the mind of Putin
Ukraine’s ongoing resistance to the war has not thwarted President Putin’s aim to rebuild a Russian empire. While Putin may not want Western nations to be actively preparing for the possibility of war, Western governments should have greater awareness and understanding of how to demonstrate their preparedness for war and strength towards a Russian leader, including by virtue of psychological preparation.
Ten years ago, President Putin enjoyed international recognition and was seen as one of the world leaders marking the 70th anniversary of the D-Day landings in France. A decade later, he is seen by Western nations as an international. Does he care? McElvoy believes that he does not and will continue to push the West to demonstrate his strength of feeling.
Russia’s empirical aspirations segue into the impact of the growing informal ‘alliance’ between China and Russia, which McElvoy believes is viewed by some commentators as an opportunistic relationship, rather than a strategic partnership. Whilst not formalised into an official alliance, the relationship has become increasingly significant on the global stage. Both nations, driven by a mutual desire to counterbalance Western influence, have found common ground in economic cooperation and political support in international forums.
This growing allegiance between China and Russia will continue to inflict economic damage on Western nations, including supply chain disruption and increasing oil prices. If, however, former President Trump returns to power, he is expected to unravel the Inflation Reduction Act - landmark US legislation that aims to curb inflation - and seek to bring oil production home.
The rise and rise of AI
Applications like ChatGPT have captured the imagination of people around the world thanks to their utility and speed of development.
The economic potential of generative AI is also fairly spectacular. PwC research shows global GDP could be up to 14% higher in 2030 as a result of AI – the equivalent of $15.7 trillion. However, alongside the potential to unleash the next wave in productivity, could technology itself become a geopolitical actor?
McElvoy agrees the impact of AI on the commercial world is revolutionary. The world is clearly on the cusp of transformation, with AI driving innovations across all industry sectors and bringing with it immense opportunities.
Although the opportunities of AI are wide-ranging, McElvoy did not shy away from discussing the risks, including the potential impact on job security. Should this lead to concern over displacement, the case for a universal basic income could become relevant.
Looking to the forthcoming elections, AI misinformation is not to be ignored in the context of how the electorate votes. Targeting of voters through social media algorithms is not a new concept and political parties have increasingly used social media platforms to disseminate party messaging. However, McElvoy was confident that people are well placed to make up their own minds when it comes to choosing a party, notwithstanding the potential of social media algorithms to encourage a shift to a more extreme view point.
The anti-ESG movement
Europe has so far largely resisted the anti-ESG tide compared to the US – due to overall greater support for greener products and a swathe of regulations. However, resistance is there to be seen.
ESG targets, such as the ambition to ban the sale of petrol and diesel cars by 2030, have been pushed back. Indeed, McElvoy questioned whether these targets were ever achievable to begin with. Overall, sustainability has become a highly politicised issue in this election year, and a highly divisive one; particularly if viewed from the perspective of social issues and environmental issues. While this debate is most ferocious in the US, the future of ESG is likely to increasingly depend on its ability to demonstrate tangible economic results and align with the financial interests of investors.
The complex, interconnected nature of global affairs should not be ignored. In today’s unpredictable global order, it has become increasingly important for business leaders to have a solid understanding of the political, technological, social, economic and environmental drivers of global change.
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